70 Years Ago the Long Island Express Hit Our Coast: As Global "Storming" Increases, How Will We Fare?

By Sarah Newkirk, Coastal Team Director,
The Nature Conservancy, LI

On September 21, 1938 the "Long Island Express" hit the Eastern Seaboard. A Category Three hurricane, it was one of only five "epic hurricanes" to hit Long Island since the 1600s. It caused the deaths of nearly 700 people and $4.7 billion in damage. And that was before our Eastern Seaboard was as developed and densely populated as it is today.

Over 90% of New York's human population is squeezed into about 1,850 miles of tidal shoreline. No other region of the country has such a large population density living in the coastal zone.

We continue to settle dangerously close to our shores despite sea level rise and more frequent and intense coastal storms. And as the pace of sea level rise quickens and we lose the coastal wetlands that provide habitat and natural buffers to storms, the risks to human and natural communities grow.

So what would happen if an equivalent hurricane hit our shores today? The damage could easily reach $24 billion. In addition, coastal tourism -- which generates $6 billion annually, providing 65,000 jobs with $1.7 billion in wages -- could also be affected. And the lives threatened or lost? Priceless.

Scientists say that, in this age of global climate change, the storms will be worse -- and they may be. How do we protect both people and nature? Doing both is not a choice-- it is an imperative: failure to protect coastal natural areas results in unacceptable exposure for coastal human communities, a fact that was amply demonstrated by the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina.

But, despite a growing awareness of the reality of global climate change and sea level rise, local decision makers - who are the primary regulatory authorities on coastal development - still lack the tools to examine how coastal hazards and conservation are related to one another and to visualize alternative scenarios for jointly managing them.

As a consequence, decision-makers aren't integrating sea level rise and coastal hazard risk into decisions about natural resource protection and land use management. Unless these considerations are a part of our governments' planning and resource management efforts, we will be unable to protect our coasts.

The Nature Conservancy on Long Island is piloting an approach called "Coastal Resilience." We have brought together the leading scientists studying sea level rise and storm surge and policy experts studying novel approaches to coastal zone management. Working with our conservation planners, these experts will provide us with the information necessary to create an interactive web-based map server that will show the on-the-ground extent of sea level rise and storm surge for our communities, the resources - natural and infrastructure Ð that will be impacted, and regulatory approaches for protecting people and nature.

While these important tools are being developed, we are working with the state and federal legislatures to increase funding available for coastal land protection, and with local governments on prioritizing these areas for existing acquisition efforts. We are working with government and not-for-profit partners on developing approaches to tidal wetland restoration that will increase wetland health and functionality. Finally, we are documenting the ability of Long Island's tidal marshes to keep pace with sea level rise by installing "sediment elevation tables" in key marshes, and monitoring them regularly.

Rising seas will continue to impact both people and nature, resulting in increased flooding in coastal communities, heightened storm surges with more intense storm damage and the drowning of important coastal habitats- like wetlands- which cannot migrate because of the intensity of development on our shores.

Sea levels are already rising. Will our government rise to the challenge of managing for them?